It's not easy for anyone. When we think about the well-being and purchasing power of Brazilians, the scenario is challenging. In this article, I want to show you some numbers that will help you make the population's sentiment tangible to others.
Covid-19 numbers
First, pandemic relief. Until April 19, the country had registered 10,323 cases of Covid-19 in the last 24 hours and 65 deaths. We shouldn't celebrate that 65 people died or that the moving average of the last 15 days was below 100. After all, more than 50 people left their loved ones in the last day. For those who have gone or lost a loved one, there are no statistics. But the 469 million vaccines applied did their part. After 662,000 Brazilians died, the light at the end of the tunnel begins to appear.
For comparison purposes, Brazil ended the Paraguayan War with 60,000 dead. The biggest war between the countries of South America killed 10 times less than Covid-19. In the Second World War, there were 467 Brazilians. And, in the Spanish flu from 1918 to 20, about 35 thousand people died, 18 times less, and even considering the population rate, it is higher.
In addition, the 662 thousand lives lost mean a cut of BRL 16.5 billion per year in the mass of potential income of families, according to calculations by the Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV/Ibre) obtained by Estadão. The study, which seeks to measure the loss of human capital, considers victims of the disease aged 20 years or older, between March 16, 2020 and March 16, 2022. Among people aged 20 to 69 years, there were 326,300 lives lost in the period, which is equivalent to an average monthly income of R$754.3 million, or R$9.1 billion in one year.
Considering the average income when they died and the life expectancy of Brazilians, Covid victims in this age group would be able to add R$ 285.9 billion to their family income until they die from another cause.
And what would be the salary of the intern in São Paulo today? We did a search on Glassdoor and the values were: Internship Bank I: BRL 2,700;
Internship Bank S: BRL 2,737;
Automotive Internship: BRL 1,835;
Pharmaceutical Internship: BRL 2,042.
By the numbers, scholarships for internship programs, in general, are corrected for inflation. Taking the IPCA, the divergence is just over R$ 50. However, if we expand the look beyond the internship in the financial sector in São Paulo capital, the result is different.
Data from the General Register of Employed and Unemployed People (Caged) for February 2022 show that the average salary of those hired (R$ 1,813) was once again below that of those dismissed (R$ 1,850), as occurred in December 2021. Compared to February 2021, the real average salary of those admitted fell by 1.1%.
A recent study by IPEA (Conjuncture Letter Number 55, Note 5, 2nd quarter of 2022) shows the impact of inflation by income bracket. The first finding of the study is that the Ipea Inflation Indicator by Income Range for March was 1.24% for the highest income bracket and 1.78% for the lowest income bracket. As a result, the feeling of scarcity is greater in lower income strata, which are already tight by definition.
According to IPEA, the main source of inflationary pressure in March came from food at home and the transport package: food and transportation. These two, fundamental in the quality of life of the population. Looking at the last 12 months, the pressure for low incomes is on the housing group, impacted by readjustments of 28.5% in electricity tariffs and 29.6% in gas cylinders.
Additionally, the behavior of food at home, in particular the increases of 55.9% for tubers, 8.1% for meat, 18.9% for poultry and eggs, 13.5% for milk and derivatives and 10.8% of baked goods, also caused significant upward impacts on inflation in the period, especially for lower income strata.
The work market
In the same Conjuncture Letter, Note 2, IPEA analyzes the labor market recovery that took place in February 2022. The unemployment rate dropped from 14.8% in February 2021 to 11.3% in February 2022 , according to the ongoing National Household Sample Survey (PNAD).
It should be noted, however, that the fall in unemployment in 12 months has been attenuated by the increase in the participation rate, which increased from 60.2% to 62.2% between February 2021 and 2022. 2022, the Brazilian workforce was composed of approximately 107.4 million people, which means an increase of 4.3% in the interannual comparison. This means that the number of discouraged people, that is, those who had given up looking for a job, dropped.
However, one fact makes me a little concerned: the strong growth of informal employment, with a year-on-year variation of 16.5% for unregistered employees in the private sector and a 6.7% growth for self-employed workers. In theory, unregistered jobs are an alternative to non-occupation, but not to formal work. It is a consensus that the productivity and income of this type of occupation are worse than the formal one, showing the abyss we find ourselves in in terms of productivity.
In the last 12 months, although all segments point to an increase in formal employment, commerce continues to be the sector with the greatest job creation (527.9 thousand). Next, the manufacturing industry (598.4 thousand), administrative services (332.5 thousand) and civil construction (231.4 thousand).
Analyzing Caged data by education level of jobs created, the vast majority of jobs created in the last 12 months were for workers with high school education (1.9 million), which corresponds to 73% of the total created. For higher education, the creation of vacancies was 240 thousand for complete and 118 thousand for incomplete, totaling 358 thousand vacancies (or 13.8%). Increasingly, education is fundamental for the jobs generated.
The cut by age group shows that more than 1.5 million new job vacancies were created by young people between 18 and 24 years old. On the other hand, there was a destruction of approximately 130,000 jobs for the segment of workers over 60 years of age.
The numbers and the career
Faced with the picture presented by the numbers, it can be said that 2022 will be complicated by rising prices, but there is hope in the opening of new jobs. The stock of formal workers adjusted by Caged reached 41.2 million in February, expanding 6.7% over the same period in 2021 and reaching the same number as in 2014.
Of course, from 2014 until now, the population has grown a lot and having the same number hired via CLT is not good. However, this shows that there is a recovery in employment, which brings a little hope for 2022. This hope is even shared by the IMF, which revised, at the beginning of the month, the forecast for GDP growth in Brazil from 0.3% to 0.8%. Okay, I know it's not encouraging to grow 0.8% in a year when the world will grow 3.6%, but it's already a step.
And the growth of formal vacancies is especially important for you, who read me and invest in your careers and improvement through education. The world pushing the purchase of commodities will put pressure on Brazil to deliver more productive capacity quickly. And the only way to do that is through productive and prepared professionals. Do you agree?
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| Author: Virgilio Marques dos Santos, CEO of FM2S Educação e Consultoria |
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